Day 147
Week 21 Day 7: Assignment: Label Your Current Initiatives by Horizon
This week's assignment brings the Three Horizons model from theory to practice -- categorize every active initiative into Horizon 1, 2, or 3.
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List every project, initiative, and ongoing workstream your team is aware of. For each one, assign a horizon: Horizon 1 (actively executing now), Horizon 2 (designing and preparing for the next one to three months), or Horizon 3 (exploring for the longer term). If you have more than three items in Horizon 1, you have too many. Move the excess to Horizon 2.
Here is the full exercise. Step one: list every initiative. Include formal projects, informal explorations, ongoing maintenance work, and any 'side projects' that are consuming team time. Be honest -- if someone is spending time on it, it goes on the list. Step two: assign horizons. For each item, ask: 'Is someone actively building this right now?' If yes, it is Horizon 1. 'Are we actively designing or scoping this for near-term start?' If yes, it is Horizon 2. 'Is this an idea we are exploring with no committed timeline?' If yes, it is Horizon 3. Step three: enforce the Horizon 1 limit. If you have more than three items in Horizon 1, rank them and move everything below the line to Horizon 2. This is the hard part. You will want to argue that all six are critical. They are not. Three of them are more critical than the others, and identifying which three is the entire point. Step four: share the categorized list with the team. Ask two questions: 'Does this match your understanding of our priorities?' and 'Is there anything on this list that surprised you?' The surprises are the most valuable data -- they reveal where your communication has been unclear. Step five: add the horizon map to your Leadership Operating Manual. Update it monthly. Over time, you will see how work flows from Horizon 3 to Horizon 2 to Horizon 1, which gives you a visual record of your strategic pipeline health. This connects to the Commander's Intent framework from Week 18 -- each Horizon 1 item should have a two-sentence intent statement.
The categorization exercise is an application of what Kaplan and Norton (1996) call 'strategic mapping' -- the practice of making abstract strategy concrete by placing initiatives on a visual framework that reveals relationships, gaps, and overloads. Their research on the Balanced Scorecard demonstrates that organizations that use visual strategy maps execute 50-70% more of their strategic initiatives than organizations that rely on verbal strategy communication alone. The three-item Horizon 1 limit is supported by research on 'throughput accounting' from Goldratt's (1984) Theory of Constraints, which demonstrates that constraining work-in-progress to the system's capacity produces higher total throughput than accepting all available work. The surprise-analysis step leverages what Argyris (1991) calls 'detecting the gap between espoused theory and theory-in-use' -- the difference between what the leader believes the priorities are and what the team experiences as priorities. Research by Neilson, Martin, and Powers (2008) found that 'information flow' -- specifically, whether frontline employees can articulate the organization's priorities -- was the single strongest predictor of organizational effectiveness among 17 traits, outranking decision rights, motivators, and structure. The monthly update cadence creates what systems thinkers call a 'feedback loop' (Senge, 1990) -- a regular cycle of observation, evaluation, and adjustment that prevents the horizon map from becoming a static document that diverges from reality.
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