Week 18 Day 1: The Landlord Fantasy vs the Landlord Reality

Owning rental property means dealing with tenants, maintenance, vacancies, insurance, property taxes, and legal issues. The average landlord spends 4-8 hours per month per property on management. The cash flow that looks great on a spreadsheet shrinks when you factor in your time, vacancies (average 5-8% of the year), and unexpected repairs.

The true cost of owning a rental property is often underestimated. Purchase: You need 20-25% down payment for investment properties, plus closing costs (2-5% of purchase price), inspection, appraisal. Ongoing: mortgage payment, property taxes (1-2% of value annually), insurance (0.5-1%), maintenance (1% of value per year on average), property management (8-10% of rent if you hire it out), vacancy (5-8% of potential rent), capital expenditure reserves (roof, HVAC, appliances -- budget 1% of value annually). A property generating $2,000/month in rent might net $500-800/month after all expenses. That is a 3-5% cash-on-cash return on your down payment -- not dramatically better than a high-yield savings account, and it requires hands-on work. The real return in real estate comes from appreciation and leverage (the bank's money amplifying your returns), not from rent.

The leveraged return on real estate is the key differentiator that makes direct property ownership attractive. Using a mortgage at 7% to buy a property appreciating at 3.5% annually seems like a losing trade. But the leverage changes the math. With 20% down ($50,000 on a $250,000 property), a 3.5% appreciation on the full $250,000 ($8,750) represents a 17.5% return on your $50,000 equity. Add rental income (net 4-5% after expenses on the total value) and the equity return approaches 20-25% in the early years. However, leverage amplifies losses too: a 20% property value decline wipes out 100% of equity. The Shiller Home Price Index (inflation-adjusted) shows U.S. real estate returned approximately 0.4% real from 1890-2024 -- barely above zero, and dramatically below stocks. The Case-Shiller data demonstrates that most of real estate's perceived appreciation is actually inflation: a home that 'doubled' in 20 years while inflation was 3.5% actually returned approximately 0% real. The academic consensus (Dimson, Marsh, Staunton; Jordà, Schularick, Taylor) is that residential real estate returns, excluding leverage and tax benefits, are approximately 1-2% real -- well below equities.